Avian influenza outbreak risk across Eurasia and Africa comes more from how host and environmental variables interact than from any single cause. Machine learning models built on more than 50,000 outbreak records from 2004 to 2025 reached at least 84 percent accuracy. The strongest drivers shift by virus type and host: wetland and vegetation signals lead for wild birds, poultry density leads for farms, and prior low-pathogenic activity is the clearest flag for the deadliest strains. Why avian influenza risk mapping matters now Avian influenza viruses keep finding new routes into poultry, wild birds, and mammals, including the recent jumps into dairy cattle reported in the United States. The cost…